• Arctic Research Plan

Sea ice and marine ecosystems

Lead author: John Calder, NOAA
Agency Partners: DOD, DOI, NASA, NOAA, NSF

The annual Arctic Report Card integrates the latest information on the state of the Arctic based on input from more than 100 authors around the world. The 2011 Report Card concludes that data collected since 2006 are sufficient to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system that is characterized by the persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of sea-ice cover and a warmer, fresher, and more acidic upper ocean. There is, moreover, growing evidence that those changes are forcing marine ecosystems in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and the contiguous Arctic Ocean toward new and generally unknown states, with the potential for short- term surprises (Krupnik and Bogoslovskaya 1999; Grebmeier 2006; Gradinger, et al. 2010).

The IARPC agencies will work together over the next five years to enhance understanding of changing sea-ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks; improve sea-ice forecasting at various spatial and temporal scales; and detect and understand ecosystem change. Both "understanding" and "forecasting" involve the application of models, whose outputs will inform decision making and planning for future observations. In conjunction with work described in other sections of this plan (e.g., section 3.2), agency partners will enhance efforts to organize, disseminate, and analyze relevant data and information. Applying modern cyberinfrastructure will improve capabilities for integrating data from different sources and blending different types of data to produce new insights and information. These advances are needed to be as responsive as possible to the needs of local residents, businesses, government decision-makers, and managers of Arctic Ocean resources.

The work focuses on four activities

• Develop a framework of observations and modeling to support forecasting of sea-ice extent on seasonal to annual scales for operational and research needs
• Identify and study sites in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and the contiguous Arctic Ocean where climate feedbacks are active
• Complete deployment of a Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) in the Arctic Ocean to create long-term data sets on biological, physical, and chemical variability and ecosystem response
• Develop integrated ecosystem-processes research in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas region