Milestone 3.1.1.a.

Convene interagency expert group on sea-ice forecasting to develop multi-year implementation plan, coordinate on-going observation and modeling, and determine needed improvements to reduce uncertainty in forecasts

Agencies: DOI, NASA, NOAA, NSF, ONR
Target year: 2013
Research area: 1. Sea ice and marine ecosystems
Activity: 1.1. Develop a framework of observations and modeling to support forecasting of sea-ice extent on seasonal to annual scales for operational and research needs

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Notes

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• Outstanding
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• Accomplishments

Note		Follow up
Oct 1, 2013 - Accomplishment Presented NOAA activities to WMO's Polar Prediction Project. Edit - Delete	20131001
Oct 1, 2013 - Accomplishment The demonstration project for the Earth System Prediction Capability Project is in its first year, which is focused on the writing of an implementation plan. BOEM and NOAA have entered into a collaborative agreement to improve forecast capabilities. Edit - Delete	20131001	Completed Oct 1, 2013	20131001
Feb 25, 3013 - Discussion Discussions began on to consider developing a workshop to better coordinate interagency efforts particularly in model sensitivity studies. Edit - Delete	20130225
Jan 29, 2013 - Outstanding Collaboration is pending funding within BOEM. Edit - Delete	20130109	June 9, 2014 John Smith	20130609
Jan 29, 2013 - Outstanding Wagner and Bowden will talk with Kuperberg and Key about possible joint activities with 3.4 and 3.5. Edit - Delete	20130109	July 9, 2013 John Smith	20130709

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2 comments

1. Sandy Starkweather (Admin), University of Colorado Feb 25, 2013

   Sample admin comment

2. Guillermo Auad, BOEM May 28, 2013

   Phil Jones of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He leads the sea ice demonstration project of the Earth System Prediction Capability, an inter-agency research agenda to improve predictions from days to decades. The Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Seasonal Ice Free Dates: Predictability from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales demonstration project has three components:

   • Evaluate existing methods;
   • Predictability/sensitivity studies; and
   • Improve models.

   June: The BOEM-NOAA collaboration arises out of BOEM's needs to provide industry with information about sea ice break-up and freeze-up. NOAA and BOEM are currently defining the project which will begin, pending funding, in FY 2014. The goal is improve sea ice forecasting on weather to monthly scales, with a focus on the freeze-up seasons. The project currently has four main components.

   • Improved forecast capabilities in a 2-pronged approach: First, improving NOAA NCEP?s operational coupled ice, ocean, wave, atmosphere model through NWS. The second, improving NOAA ESRL's research coupled icosahedral model.
   • Deploy field observations to better inform forecasters of sea ice conditions, validate the models, and to be able to provide BOEM with environmental conditions that are controlling the freeze-up.
   • Work with the National Ice Center and improve the BOEM sea ice database. Coordinate with other agency, university, and observing partners to improve sea ice forecast products.

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• Guillermo Auad Researcher, BOEM

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Brendan Kelly, IARPC Lead
Brendan_P_Kelly@ostp.eop.gov
(202) 456-6056

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