• Arctic Research Plan
• Sea ice and marine ecosystems

Develop a framework of observations and modeling to support forecasting of sea-ice extent on seasonal to annual scales for operational and research needs

Why do this?

The Arctic Ocean system has shifted to a new state. Evidence cited in the Arctic Report Card shows that the minimum extent of summer Arctic sea ice from 2007 to the present has fallen below the previously established trend line for the period 1979 through 2006, and the rate of sea-ice loss exceeds that projected by coupled climate models (Stroeve et al. 2007)[1].

Continued loss of sea ice will have important consequences for marine and terrestrial ecosystems, coastal communities, maritime transportation, natural resource development, regional and global weather and climate, and national security. Understanding and predicting the consequences of continuing sea-ice loss on the marine ecosystem will require better understanding of the Arctic Ocean environment and processes to improve sea-ice forecasts and predictions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

Timeframe

Mid-term (3–5 years)

Expected outcomes

• Improved operational and research forecasts/projections to support safe operations and eco- system stewardship on a seasonal to annual basis.
• Reduce uncertainty in predictions and projections at longer time scales and over the entire Arctic marine area, for better informed policy and decision making at local, state, national, and international levels.
• Significantly improved seasonal weather and sea-ice models and forecasts to fill a critical gap in marine weather and climate services, since at seasonal and shorter time scales, sea-ice and weather forecasts are tightly coupled and must be pursued together. Improved models and forecasts will benefit community and subsistence activities, management of protected marine resources (including ice-dependent species), marine navigation, and industry operations.
• At annual and longer time scales, reduced uncertainty and increased accuracy of sea-ice projections and enhanced understanding of how newly sea-ice-free areas influence weather and climate, not just in the Arctic but in the global system. Enhanced understanding will lead to sustainable infrastructure and community planning and aid in projection of regional and global climate impacts forced by changes in the Arctic.

Science and technology gaps and needs

Enhanced environmental observations and improved modeling capabilities are needed to meet the requirements for improved sea-ice forecasts on a seasonal to annual basis. Many of the observations and modeling capabilities would also be valuable for sea-ice forecasts at sub-seasonal time scales. Appropriate collaborations are needed to ensure data and model outputs are available to support forecasting at both time scales.

Both in-situ and remotely sensed observations will be needed, taking full advantage of international remote sensing assets. Processes requiring assessment include ice growth, export, melt, and albedo change, with in-situ measurements coupled to remotely sensed observations to create a pan-Arctic set of sea-ice state variables for data assimilation and model initialization.

Specific sea-ice characteristics that need to be assessed are ice concentration, ice thickness, snow thick- ness, ice type (first-year vs. perennial), ice motion, leads/polynyas, melt pond fraction, surface albedo, temperature, and bottom and top ablation. Ocean mixed layer temperature, tidal, bathymetric, and circulation data are also needed. Most of these data also have applications to ecosystem and coastal zone studies and would lead to improved understanding of storm surges.

Planning for observations must include input from modeling centers to ensure data collection in a manner appropriate to needs for initialization, validation, and assimilation of various forecast models. Continuous or frequently repeated data collection will be needed, including broad surveys of ice conditions in at least spring and fall, to initialize forecasts of both ice loss and regrowth. To meet the observational requirements in a cost-effective way, it will be necessary to take full advantage of all available observing platforms (e.g., ships, aircraft, fixed offshore platforms, coastal locations) on an opportunistic basis. Partnerships with national and international organizations and with private industry are needed so that platforms can be equipped with instrumentation for many of the needed observations on a mutually beneficial basis. Whenever possible, data should be returned in near real-time to support forecasting at shorter time scales and to verify sensor performance.

International collaboration will be a necessary component of this project, not only because Canada and Russia share the target region with the United States, but also because international collaboration is needed for access to critical remote sensing data. The most important of these are the international satellite radar missions, which are important for constraining sea-ice age, thickness, and motion [e.g., European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 and Canadian Search And Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT) Missions].

References

1. As this report was being finalized, a new record minimum was recorded for the extent of Arctic sea ice (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/).

Milestones

Throughout this document, agencies are listed alphabetically in milestones, and that order does not imply priority.

• Milestone met
• In progress
• No progress
• Deactivated/deferred

1. Convene interagency expert group on sea-ice forecasting to develop multi-year implementation plan, coordinate on-going observation and modeling, and determine needed improvements to reduce uncertainty in forecasts
   • Agencies: DOI, NASA, NOAA, NSF, ONR
   • Target year: 2013
2. Engage with stakeholders and users to determine needs for sea-ice forecasts and products through venues such as the Alaska Marine Science Symposium and Alaska Forum on the Environment
   • Agencies: BOEM, NOAA, NSF, ONR
   • Target year: 2013
3. Continue the Sea Ice Outlook and Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook to evaluate diverse sea-ice forecasting approaches and fill a valuable user need
   • Agencies: NSF, NOAA
   • Target year: 2013
4. Launch Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) 2 satellite altimetry mission to continue the record of sea-ice thickness measurements and land ice elevation change
   • Agency: NASA
   • Target year: 2016
5. Launch Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Follow-On satellite mission to continue the record of changes in Arctic Ocean circulation and land ice mass loss
   • Agency: NASA
   • Target year: 2017
6. Develop algorithms for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), recently launched on Japan’s GCOM-W, to continue and enhance passive microwave record of sea-ice extent
   • Agencies: NASA, NOAA
   • Target year: 2014
7. Improve knowledge of sea-ice melting through various activities such as ONR’s marginal ice zone program and NASA’s Operation IceBridge mission
   • Agencies: NASA, NOAA, NSF, ONR
   • Target year: 2017

« Back to Sea ice and marine ecosystems