Now Available: 2021 September Sea Ice Outlook Report

Betsy Turner-Bogren September 21, 2021

The 2021 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

This September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report—a new addition to the SIO season—was created in response to suggestions during the 2021 January SIO Contributors Forum to solicit forecasts initialized in late August or early September for September mean Arctic sea-ice extent. The September SIO report provides a brief summary of the forecasts. The more comprehensive, full post-season report will be published in spring 2022. The September Outlook is based on a total of 36 forecasts for the pan-Arctic (of which 20 are new September submissions and 16 outlooks are repeated from prior months per contributor request and/or permission) seven for Alaska, and seven for the Antarctic. In addition, we received 11 submissions for pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies.

For the pan-Arctic, the median September Outlook is 4.39 million square kilometers, equal to the August median and higher than the median of the June and July forecasts for 2021.

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For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (

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