Now Available: 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook Report

Betsy Turner-Bogren August 27, 2021

The 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 August report, 45 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, nine also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, nine included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 15 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic; ocean heat conditions; predictions of Arctic sea-ice probability, ice-free dates, ice-advance dates, and initial conditions for those forecasts; Arctic regional sea-ice extent; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; and Antarctic contributions.

For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.39 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The forecasts continue to support a September 2021 mean sea-ice extent that is above the September 2020 value of 4.00 million square kilometers.

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For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (

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