Monitoring Observing Modeling and Prediction Collaboration Team

Scope of Activities

Monitoring is a subset of observing and generally refers to observing specific variables over time to detect change. Similarly, prediction is a subset of modeling and refers to using numerical models to estimate how the Arctic or a subsystem of it may change in the future. MOMP is critical for increasing understanding of the natural and human components of the Arctic system as well as the degree and direction of past and future changes. MOMP is also essential for providing actionable data, forecasts, and new research directions.

Sustained observations and widespread monitoring support research activities by providing information on the variability of the Arctic system. This information provides a necessary baseline for future studies and data for evaluating models and making both short-term predictions and longer-scale projections. Focused short-term observational efforts are important for improving fundamental understanding of Arctic processes, regions, and extreme events. A foundational Arctic observational capability requires a sustained, coordinated, and integrated network of satellites, other remote sensing, and in situ observing systems suitable for Arctic conditions; collection of physical and biological samples; resources to train instrument operators, support data quality, and analyze observations; and continued development of new technologies, such as low-cost and autonomous sensors, to fill observational gaps.

Many critical Arctic observational and monitoring efforts are conducted by non-federal partners. IARPC will improve coordination and integration of observations conducted or supported by federal agencies with those conducted or enabled by non-federal partners including the state of Alaska, Indigenous and Tribal organizations, Arctic communities, research institutions, and private sector.

Future development of Arctic observing capabilities should consider sustainability in field research, good practices to limit potential environmental impacts, coordination with other observational efforts, and meaningful engagement with Indigenous Peoples, including incorporation of Indigenous Knowledge through Indigenous leadership, participatory research, and co-production in the design and implementation of local, regional, and circumpolar observing systems.

Computational models combine findings from theory, observations, and process studies, providing a framework for understanding interactions among components of the Arctic and between the Arctic and the global system across a range of scales and complexity. Short-term predictions and longer-term projections of the Arctic system are essential for providing information to users and decision-makers to inform the design of climate adaptation and resilience plans and to support hazard mitigation actions. A foundational modeling capability for the Arctic requires a set of models of different complexities, integration of observing and modeling capabilities, and strong interactions with partners to understand their needs, communicate uncertainties, and provide information for decision-making.

The need to advance understanding of Arctic processes and system interactions drives the effort to improve synthesis of monitoring, observing, and modeling. Numerical models require observations for initialization, evaluation, and assimilation. Integrating observational and modeling output enables creation of value-added products and can help fill spatial and temporal gaps in analysis. Models can provide critical information to inform the design and optimization of observing networks. Advances in related fields such as AI and machine learning should be explored to improve analysis and integration of large volumes of observational and model data. Such integration will accelerate the advancement of knowledge of the dynamic Arctic system and lead to improved predictive capabilities. Working with the Monitoring and Observing communities of practice, this team seeks to identify current gaps in observational or modeling capabilities that hamper predictive skill of the Arctic system, barriers that hold back progress in filling these gaps, and key activities most critical to improving predictability, including the need to maintain critical existing MOMP capabilities.

In coordination with the Education, Training, and Capacity Building Foundational Activity, training the next generation in MOMP activities will be incorporated. IARPC will also promote international coordination and cooperation in Arctic system MOMP efforts. For example, through the U.S. Arctic Observing Network (US AON) Board, IARPC will support federal agencies’ efforts to improve the performance of Arctic-wide observing and data management activities. Lastly, IARPC will increase coordination and engagement with other federal efforts (including public-private partnerships) focused on improved observations, modeling, and predictability of the Earth system. This will include working with the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Interagency Council on Advancing Meteorological Services (ICAMS), and identifying and prioritizing actions to implement the Earth System Predictability Research and Development Strategic Framework and Roadmap.

Team Leaders

Sally McFarlane
DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility (Website)

David Allen
NOAA, GOMO/ Arctic Research Program (Website)

Kirstin Schulz
University of Texas at Austin

David Clemens-Sewall
NOAA

Deliverables from the Arctic Research Plan

MOMP 1 Coordinate activities and communities of practice that bring together Arctic modeling, observing, monitoring, and prediction to advance Arctic research.

• MOMP 1.1 Support development of synthesis products, best-estimate datasets, and model intercomparison studies using cases from major Arctic field campaigns and long-term observational sites to better enable the use of observational data in model evaluation.
• MOMP 1.2 Support development of metrics that measure key Arctic processes and implementation of these metrics in benchmarking packages to facilitate model validation against observations.
• MOMP 1.3 Provide support and/or funding opportunities for researchers to integrate Arctic observational and modeling data through data assimilation and reanalysis.
• MOMP 1.4 Support ongoing work, such as observing system experiments, to quantify the current and potential value of Arctic ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land observations for initialized predictions spanning daily to decadal timescales.

MOMP 2 Support assessment, gaps analysis, and intercomparisons to understand observational and modeling needs in Arctic research.

• MOMP 2.1 Conduct observational gap analysis case studies using the Benefit Assessment methodology to inform understanding of the capabilities, opportunities, and gaps in Arctic observing and data systems, with an initial focus on risk management and hazard mitigation.
• MOMP 2.2 Provide support and/or funding opportunities for researchers to participate in existing Arctic-focused model intercomparison projects and explore the feasibility of developing new model intercomparison projects focused on the Arctic system, its components, and/or its coupling with the broader climate system to understand gaps in modeling and predictability of the Arctic system.
• MOMP 2.3 Conduct workshops to identify needs and priorities for improving models of the Arctic system. For example, workshops could focus on improving a single model component (such as sea ice) or on improving coupling across model components.
• MOMP 2.4 The US AON Board will build on the 2022 Report to Congress by recommending clear parameters for agencies to identify existing AON investments for inclusion in future budget cross-cut efforts; advancing technological capacity building by inviting more participation from groups focused on data management and technology in US AON Board discussions; and evaluating agency policies and programs, interagency efforts, and community protocols.

MOMP 3 Support coordination and engagement with Federal, State, international, and non-Federal partners who are conducting monitoring, observing, modeling, and prediction in the Arctic.

• MOMP 3.1 Support participation of U.S. researchers in international Arctic modeling and prediction efforts in order to improve the predictive capabilities of Arctic models. Products of this deliverable may include relevant scientific papers, presentations, and meeting sessions.
• MOMP 3.2 Coordinate among state and federal agencies that support fieldwork and share information among researchers and Alaska communities through the research expedition vessel and mooring matrices and spring and fall public meetings focused on research season activities.
• MOMP 3.3 Coordinate U.S. federal Arctic observing and modeling research efforts with other relevant U.S. interagency groups to identify priority activities to support the Arctic component of the Earth System Predictability Research and Development Strategic Framework and Roadmap.
• MOMP 3.4 Support participation of U.S. researchers in international Arctic observing and observational planning efforts to evaluate and improve the Arctic Observing Network. Progress will be tracked in relevant scientific papers, presentations, international arrangements, and/or meeting sessions.

MOMP 4 Support best practices in field observations and modeling.

• MOMP 4.1 Build on existing efforts within federal agencies to share resources and implement best practices for improving field safety culture, and enforcing safe working environments in the field, including both physical safety while working in harsh and remote Arctic environments and emotional safety from harassment and hostile working conditions.
• MOMP 4.2 In coordination with the Data Management Collaboration Team, promote and support FAIR and CARE principles for observational and modeling data.
• MOMP 4.3 Promote the integration of early career students, researchers, and professionals working in Arctic-related fields in MOMP activities, meetings, webinars, and workshops to facilitate early career engagement in IARPC activities.

TCEP 1 Strengthen and streamline Tribal consultation processes related to Arctic research activities by enhancing coordination, transparency, and accessibility across IARPC Agencies and those engaged in Arctic research.

• TCEP 1.1 Identify and engage with agencies that have the largest volume of activities at the intersection of Arctic research and Trust obligations. Characterize the type of activities that fall into this category, and identify opportunities for coordination and efficiency as well as good practices and lessons learned.
• TCEP 1.2 Develop a Report of IARPC agencies’ Consultation and engagement practices to fulfill Trust obligations as they relate to Arctic research. This will include compiling a report on consultation practices (e.g., Federal Tribal Consultation, Section106, NAGPRA, NSF Tribal Nation Approval) across IARPC Agencies using consistent metrics, highlighting key processes, transparency measures, and community engagement and reporting expectations. The report will include agency-specific consultation practices, links, and a clear outline of how community input is collected and used.
• TCEP 1.3 Enhance IARPC’s Tribal Engagement Resources. This will include designing a strategy for leveraging the IARPC website as a centralized hub for Tribal consultation opportunities, reporting mechanisms, and accessible guidance for Tribal Nations. It will also include developing resources for Arctic researchers, including best practices and engagement guidelines that support long-term partnerships with Tribal Nations and local communities.

Accomplishments

To be added in 2023.