Modelers Community of Practice

Scope of Activities

The Modeling Sub-team (MST), first created under Arctic Research Plan 2013-2017 as the Modeling Collaboration Team, will continue operations under Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. As a Sub-team of the Environmental Intelligence Collaboration Team, MST's scope of activities will include implementation of Research Objectives and Performance Elements related to modeling under Research Goal 9. Learn more about the Environmental Intelligence Collaboration Team here. 

Deliverables from the Arctic Research Plan

MOMP 1 Coordinate activities and communities of practice that bring together Arctic modeling, observing, monitoring, and prediction to advance Arctic research.

• MOMP 1.1 Support development of synthesis products, best-estimate datasets, and model intercomparison studies using cases from major Arctic field campaigns and long-term observational sites to better enable the use of observational data in model evaluation.
• MOMP 1.2 Support development of metrics that measure key Arctic processes and implementation of these metrics in benchmarking packages to facilitate model validation against observations.
• MOMP 1.3 Provide support and/or funding opportunities for researchers to integrate Arctic observational and modeling data through data assimilation and reanalysis.
• MOMP 1.4 Support ongoing work, such as observing system experiments, to quantify the current and potential value of Arctic ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land observations for initialized predictions spanning daily to decadal timescales.

MOMP 2 Support assessment, gaps analysis, and intercomparisons to understand observational and modeling needs in Arctic research.

• MOMP 2.2 Provide support and/or funding opportunities for researchers to participate in existing Arctic-focused model intercomparison projects and explore the feasibility of developing new model intercomparison projects focused on the Arctic system, its components, and/or its coupling with the broader climate system to understand gaps in modeling and predictability of the Arctic system.
• MOMP 2.3 Conduct workshops to identify needs and priorities for improving models of the Arctic system. For example, workshops could focus on improving a single model component (such as sea ice) or on improving coupling across model components.

MOMP 3 Support coordination and engagement with Federal, State, international, and non-Federal partners who are conducting monitoring, observing, modeling, and prediction in the Arctic.

• MOMP 3.1 Support participation of U.S. researchers in international Arctic modeling and prediction efforts in order to improve the predictive capabilities of Arctic models. Products of this deliverable may include relevant scientific papers, presentations, and meeting sessions.
• MOMP 3.3 Coordinate U.S. federal Arctic observing and modeling research efforts with other relevant U.S. interagency groups (e.g., ICAMS, US CLIVAR, USGCRP, and USGEO) to identify priority activities to support the Arctic component of the Earth System Predictability Research and Development Strategic Framework and Roadmap.

PILR 1 Fulfill Federal requirement to consult with Federally recognized Tribes and Alaska Native Corporations.

• PILR 1.2 Evaluate the Principles for Conducting Research in the Arctic 2018, and update as needed based on the evaluation.

PILR 3 Develop guidance for agencies to consistently apply participatory research and Indigenous leadership in research.

• PILR 3.1 Identify key elements of Indigenous leadership in research with Tribes, Indigenous organizations, and federal agencies. Integrate these elements into the Principles for Conducting Research in the Arctic and develop guidance for federal agencies.
• PILR 3.2 Share information among agencies about how to streamline contracting, agreements, and compensation processes to support co-stewardship and co-production of knowledge.
• PILR 3.3 Convene, facilitate, and participate in discussions to identify mechanisms to foster pathways for Indigenous leadership in research.
• PILR 3.4 To aid in agencies’ ethical engagement and meaningful work with Tribal governments and Indigenous communities and organizations, compile a list of resources and guidance, rules, protocols, and approaches that Tribal governments and Indigenous communities and organizations have put forward. Distribute the list to agencies and post publicly via the IARPC Collaborations website. Share the list with the Tribal governments and Indigenous communities and organizations to provide additional insights, pending their interest, to the federal workforce on implementing the guidance, rules, protocols, and approaches they have put forward.

RISK 1 Summarize currently available data and information requirements associated with hazard and risk mitigation, adaptation, and response efforts. Synthesize community-led activities and information to identify potential needs for future efforts.

• RISK 1.1 Conduct a study identifying where information used in decision-making and planning around risks and hazards can be improved through access to new or additional data sources. This study should consider a wide range of activities associated with ongoing responses to common and emerging hazards, including risk reduction efforts and emergency preparedness and response. The scope of the study will be expanded to include information on tsunamis and volcanoes.
• RISK 1.2 Share findings of RISK 1.1 as a means to (1) spur additional research and science communication aimed at addressing unmet needs for planning, prevention, response, and recovery and (2) inform time-sensitive decision-making and planning processes.
• RISK 1.3 Develop a network that brings together scientists, the emergency management community, and key agency contacts to share knowledge, identify new and emerging challenges, and inform decision-making and operations through research.

RISK 2 Update and improve the “Statewide Threat Assessment: Identification of Threats from Erosion, Flooding, and Thawing Permafrost in Remote Alaska Communities.”

• RISK 2.1 Identify the top threats/hazards to communities and critical remote state and federal government infrastructure in the state of Alaska that should be included in the Statewide Threat Assessment. This might include coastal and river erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost, and changes in the seasonal snowpack.
• RISK 2.2 Upon completion of RISK 2.1, establish a data collection and collation plan to include mechanisms to collect threat/hazard data that may not be readily available.
• RISK 2.3 Collect and integrate disparate threat/hazard information and perform modeling and analysis to understand where natural and human-made threats and hazards pose a risk to Arctic communities.

SYSTEMS 1 Advance understanding of Arctic amplification and the associated connections with lower latitudes.

• SYSTEMS 1.1 Provide funding opportunities for investigator-driven modeling and observational studies that focus on the following aspects of Arctic amplification: (1) ice-albedo feedback; (2) impacts of atmospheric and oceanic circulation on Arctic amplification; and/or (3) transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants between Arctic and lower latitudes. Share knowledge and synthesize results arising from these studies.
• SYSTEMS 1.2 Hold workshops and webinars and produce publications to encourage interagency research coordination on Arctic amplification and to share results.
• SYSTEMS 1.3 Provide opportunities to support and coordinate research to enhance the understanding of connections between Arctic and global ocean circulation with a particular focus on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
• SYSTEMS 1.4 Advance understanding of the role of atmospheric rivers in Arctic amplification with a specific task of hosting conference sessions to facilitate knowledge sharing.
• SYSTEMS 1.5 Hold cross-collaboration-team meetings and workshops, and produce publications, to explore the results of high-resolution and regional Arctic modeling. Meetings will focus on the importance of model resolution to capture Arctic amplification and its relationship with the lower latitudes.

TIA 1 Survey federally funded research technology.

• TIA 1.1 Strategically engage externally, across IARPC, and within the Technology Innovation and Application Collaboration Team.
• TIA 1.2 Use the Technology Innovation and Application Collaboration Team to support and coordinate technology-related conversations and activities throughout IARPC Collaborations.

Accomplishments

Scientific Achievements

Progress made on ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) activities (Performance Element 9.3.6) was reported during a joint webinar with the GSLCT. ISMIP6 is the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison effort that focuses on understanding the role of melting ice-sheets in sea-level change. There are two components to ISMIP6. One focuses the coupled ice-sheet-climate-system, while the other on the stand-alone ice-sheet models. Many models have already participated in the stand-alone ice-sheet model intercomparison that highlights challenges and uncertainties associated with initialization. Three of the US based ice-sheet models used in that effort were highlighted as part of the webinar. Preparation is currently underway at two of the US modeling centers funded by NASA, NSF, and DOE to get the models ready for the coupled ISMIP6 experiments.

MST scientists have participated in a CLIVAR-led workshop on Arctic Midlatitude (Performance Element 9.2.1) connections and findings from the workshop were summarized and discussed as part of an MST webinar. To address the uncertainties of the underlying mechanisms, a set of coordinated modeling experiments have been proposed by the scientific community.

Two sets of presentations at two independent MST meetings focused on enhancing understanding of processes and their interactions and feedbacks within the Arctic System (Performance Element 9.2.3). The first focused on activities related to the MOSAiC field campaign looking at atmospheric and sea-ice interactions and the second focused on understanding the carbon cycle in the terrestrial system in high-latitudes. Both sets of presentations had an interagency flavor. The focus on the MOSAiC campaign brought in DOE, NSF, and ONR funded scientists and the focus on carbon cycle juxtaposed DOE and NASA modeling activities related to the NGEE-Arctic and the ABoVE field campaigns.

Collaboration Between Federal Agencies and the Research Community

The first MST meeting was a joint webinar between MST and GSLCT focusing on ISMIP6. The webinar highlighted the interagency contribution to CMIP6 in that involved NASA, DOE, and University scientists. The 5^th MST webinar focused on the carbon cycle and modelers involved in the NASA ABOVE and DOE NGEE Arctic efforts presented activities. Having two similar, but complementary activities funded by two agencies highlighted common scientific challenges faced by the science teams. For instance, the ISMIP6 webinar indicated that all the modeling teams had similar concerns with regards to initialization of the models, while the webinar on terrestrial carbon uncertainties highlighted the challenges for modeling across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. These can enhance collaboration among scientists and agencies.

Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholders in the MST team are primarily the research community. While planning for presentation at the various MST meetings, MST team leaders made sure that scientists funded by at least two agencies presented work (e.g., the ISMIP6 GSCT-MST meeting, the NGEE-ABOVE carbon MST meeting). This juxtaposing of presentations from different agencies helps reinforce similar goals and issues of the scientific community. Team leadership hopes that synergies will also be identified in the future.

Plans for 2018

For FY2018 meetings, the MST will continue to address one Performance Element per month. To enhance agency collaboration and participation, as appropriate, team leadership also plan to hold short planning sessions with other relevant Federal funding managers to discuss and plan for the upcoming meetings. We anticipate that this focus will increase discussion and interest of the funding program managers in this topic and will enable us to conduct the following meetings incorporating the ideas of the other agencies. Team leadership will also try to enhance collaboration across other IARPC collaboration teams in the process.

2017 Performance Element Reporting Log (9.2.1-9.3.6)

2017 Modeling Collaboration Sub-team Annual Report

2018 Performance Element Reporting Log