Arctic Systems Interactions Collaboration Team

Enhancing our ability to observe, understand, predict, and project the Arctic’s dynamic interconnected systems and their links to the Earth system.

Scope of Activities

The Arctic is the fastest changing region on Earth, with changes observed in physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. Over the past several decades, Arctic air, ocean, and land temperatures have increased at a rate more than twice the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Arctic sea ice extent has decreased dramatically, with summer melting occurring earlier and both the summer and winter sea ice extent shrinking faster. Boreal and Arctic permafrost (perennially frozen ground) thaw increases carbon emissions that further exacerbate global temperature increase. Additionally, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the largest ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere, is retreating, and the associated melt contributes to increased sea level rise . These changes will affect the environment and associated natural resources in the Arctic, and will ultimately have a large economic impact.

These changes do not happen in isolation, but involve feedbacks that impact multiple components of the Arctic’s natural and human systems, as well as the larger Earth systems. Understanding these interactions, including impacts to the environment as a result of human behavior, is becoming increasingly important, and is also useful for predicting future Arctic and global changes. For instance, changes in atmospheric constituents, clouds, and circulation affect the surface energy budget in the Arctic, thereby affecting sea ice extent. Decreasing sea ice extent, in turn, alters the air-sea interaction impacting the energy balance of the atmosphere and ocean. Similarly, sea ice and marine ecosystem changes are affected through changes in ocean circulation and heat and freshwater budgets. Changes in the Arctic affect global atmospheric circulation by altering the jet stream and the polar vortex, which in turn influences midlatitude weather in the United States.

Changes within individual components of the Arctic system can have cascading impacts on the integrated system. For instance, sea ice change, thawing permafrost, changing storm strength, and increased sea level due to glacial melt all have an interconnected effect on Arctic coastlines, such as increased flooding, leading to erosion, which can have large economic impacts. Interactions between human and natural systems also have broad implications to Arctic Indigenous communities.

In recent years, ocean primary productivity in nearly all regions of the pan-Arctic was higher than in the past, which can be linked to lower sea ice cover and increased nutrient availability. In addition, with changes in sea ice and water temperature, some species are responding with spatial or temporal changes in their distributions. For example, in 2017, commercially important Pacific cod and pollock in the Bering Sea expanded north approximately 500-1,000 km in less than 12 months. The Western Arctic bowhead whale—an important species for Indigenous ways of life—provides another example. Although the population has shown a steady increase since commercial whaling ended, the autumn migrations in 2019 and 2020 exhibited new extremes of opposite degrees in whale densities near Barrow Canyon, with very low densities and a far offshore distribution in 2019 and record high densities and nearshore distribution in 2020.

The impacts on the terrestrial ecosystem are also significant. Plant species in the Arctic are exhibiting changes with extended growth season, earlier snow-melt, and altered precipitation patterns. Wildfire frequency and intensity are impacted by air temperature and weather patterns while soils, permafrost, hydrology, the terrestrial ecosystem, and human health are impacted when an area burns. For example, enhanced fire activity, permafrost thaw, and changes to local and regional hydrologic cycles are also expected to enhance the release and deposition of mercury trapped in Arctic soils and tundra. This in turn can have negative impacts on human health.

Computational models that quantify the drivers of past and current Arctic change, as well as the interactions and feedbacks of these changes with Earth’s natural and human systems, are needed to understand the interconnected Arctic system. Models help represent the state of understanding of systems and are the principal mechanism through which current understanding can be projected into the future. Models of both the individual components of the Arctic as well as the comprehensive Earth system are needed. Different kinds of observations are also needed, including intensive short-term observational campaigns, long-term satellite and in situ observations, and observations that detail the Arctic climate and environment on the geologic time scale, as well as observations that include generations of Indigenous Knowledge. Modeling and observational capabilities across agencies, along with research on Arctic and Earth system processes, enhance our understanding of Arctic system interactions.

By addressing this priority area, the U.S. Arctic research community will have a better understanding of the Arctic system and its connection to the Earth system as a whole. This will include reduced uncertainties in predictions and an increased ability to inform strategies that minimize the negative impacts and take advantage of the opportunities of a changing Arctic.



Team Leaders

Renu Joseph
DOE

Sophie Nowicki
University at Buffalo (Website)

Shawn Serbin
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Website)

Hailong Wang
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Website)

Kaitlin Harbeck
NASA Cryospheric Sciences Program (Website)

Emma Menio
National Science Foundation


Deliverables from the Arctic Research Plan

2.1 Advance understanding of Arctic amplification and the associated connections with lower latitudes.

  • 2.1.1 Provide funding opportunities for investigator-driven modeling and observational studies that focus on the following aspects of Arctic Amplification: (1) ice-albedo feedback; (2) impacts of atmospheric and oceanic circulation on Arctic Amplification; and (3) transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants between Arctic and lower latitudes. Share knowledge and synthesize results arising from these studies.
  • 2.1.2 Hold workshops and webinars and produce publications to encourage interagency research coordination on Arctic Amplification.
  • 2.1.3 Provide opportunities to support and coordinate research to enhance the understanding of connections between Arctic and global ocean circulation with a particular focus on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
  • 2.1.4 Advance understanding of the role of atmospheric rivers in Arctic Amplification with a specific task of hosting a conference session in 2023 or 2024.
  • 2.1.5 Hold cross-collaboration-team meetings and workshops, and produce publications, to explore the results of high-resolution and regional Arctic modeling. Meetings will focus on the importance of model resolution to capture Arctic Amplification and its relationship with the lower latitudes.
  • 2.1.6 Quantify the contributions of surface properties, clouds, aerosol particles, and precipitation to the Arctic summer surface radiation budget and sea ice melt during the early melt seasons.
  • 2.1.7 Facilitate regular discussions to reflect on the diversity of those active in Priority Area 2 and on identifying ways to improve inclusivity. In addition, use the quarterly meeting to consider what has worked well, as well as suggest changes and implement actions to better address barriers to diversity, equity, and inclusion in Priority Area 2 activities.

2.2 Observe, understand, predict, and project Arctic ecosystem change and its impacts on humans and the entire Earth system.

  • 2.2.1 Advance capacity to better understand, quantify, and predict methane emissions from permafrost changes in the Arctic through international collaborations.
  • 2.2.2 Carry out and synthesize research and monitoring needed to improve understanding of important Arctic ecosystem processes and feedbacks. This will include responses to environmental changes, such as the associated impacts on wildlife and human communities and infrastructure. This work will include conference sessions and scientific publications.
  • 2.2.3 Develop and update meaningful products for delivering findings and information concerning key climate features, including the annual release of the peer-reviewed Arctic Report Card on the current state of the Arctic relative to the historical record.
  • 2.2.4 Continue coordinated interdisciplinary Arctic marine climate and ecosystem observations, and share data and promote synthesis of field observations.
  • 2.2.5 Convene community-wide workshop highlighting how remote sensing data products can be used to inform multi-scale land models from plot to pan-Arctic and inform use of remote sensing data in land surface models.
  • 2.2.6 Continue support for research programs that document Arctic marine species distribution, abundance, biodiversity, health and condition, foraging ecology, demography, habitat use in the Arctic, and basic life history information as well as age and growth rates of key links in the food web.
  • 2.2.7 Produce and support publications and data products enhancing understanding of the linkages among marine species, oceanographic and sea ice conditions, and climate change. Specifically improve understanding of mechanisms that affect trends in trophic interactions, abundance, distribution, vital rates, and behavior.

2.3 Understand interactions between social, ecological, and physical Arctic systems, particularly in the context of coastal, climate, and cryospheric change.

  • 2.3.1 Observe, understand, and model processes to manage and mitigate potential and realized threats from coastal invasive species, biotoxicoses, and wildlife diseases on animals and human populations via existing research networks and initiatives, publications, participation in scientific meetings, and public engagement.
  • 2.3.2 Through conference sessions, scientific publications, and IARPC Collaborations meetings, highlight results from missions that contribute to long-term observations of land ice.
  • 2.3.3 Develop and assess ice sheet models for better prediction of sea level rise.
  • 2.3.4 Integrate information from field, laboratory, and remote sensing studies to examine and quantify relationships among surface topography, vegetation composition, hydrology, disturbance effects (including fire, thermokarst, land use change, and wildlife), geophysical processes in permafrost soils, and humans. Share results in reports, presentations, and scientific publications.
  • 2.3.5 Better understand the rate of terrestrial and subsea permafrost degradation and their roles in environmental and ecosystems processes and services (e.g., atmospheric and terrestrial carbon, Arctic greening, species invasion) by integrating empirical information into modeling efforts at various scales and delivering results via publications and presentations.
  • 2.3.6 Foster continued efforts to link multi-agency investments while expanding empirical datasets and synthesizing information that will inform the development of updated essential variable maps for Alaska, Greenland, and the circumpolar Arctic (e.g., permafrost ground ice content, topography, bathymetry, vegetation).
  • 2.3.7 Improve high-resolution models’ ability to capture coastal processes at the interface of ocean, land, and atmosphere by supporting targeted collaborations among model developers, users, and decision-makers. Products will include an interagency scientific peer-reviewed publication and conference sessions that address these models.

Accomplishments

To be added in 2023.