5.2 Improve numerical models to enhance projection of ice loss from Arctic land ice and the consequent impact on global sea level, and to better understand the predictability of these processes.

Numerical and analytical models synthesize understanding derived from observations and process studies. They inform the design of future observations and process studies and enable quantitative projections over various time scales. The IARPC Collaborations will be a forum for cooperation on the improvement of land ice dynamics and mass balance process models and for facilitating the improvement of large-scale model physics to enhance predictive capability at a range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to the missions of the participating agencies. The research activities coordinated to address this Objective also provide the foundation needed for addressing Objectives within the Environmental Intelligence Goal.

Performance elements from the Arctic research plan

  • 5.2.1 Enable the development and assessment of ice sheet models, both as stand-alone models and within the context of earth system models, including: the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and the Land Ice Verification and Validation (LIVV) Toolkit.
  • 5.2.2 Develop data sets to be used as boundary and forcing functions for ice sheet, ice cap, and glacier models, including improving regional reanalyses focused on the greater Arctic, improving global reanalysis systems in ways that are relevant to the Arctic, and promoting joint observation-modeling-reanalysis-forecasting activities.
  • 5.2.3 Support investigator-driven modeling projects designed to understand and parameterize important land ice processes, including studies of mélange rheologies and dynamics, wet and dry firn processes, meltwater infiltration and refreezing, interactions between the glacier front and subglacial outflow plumes, and basal sliding laws.

« Glaciers & Sea Level



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