Modeling involves substantial uncertainties from many different sources, particularly in high-latitude regions where data are often sparse and unique processes play an important role in system dynamics. Quantifying – and where possible, mitigating – these uncertainties as much as possible is a major priority, and a wide range of methods is used to address them. One such approach is ensemble modeling, which offers significant opportunities but also presents potential pitfalls. In this session, two scientists discussed their approaches to handling model uncertainty in general, and ensemble modeling in particular.
Photo: Lisa Hupp/
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