Climate change in the Arctic is creating a positive feedback loop with the emissions of greenhouse gasses from permafrost and high-latitude ecosystems. Permafrost regions are carbon rich and permafrost thaw is causing increased biogenic methane production. At this meeting, Dr. McKenzie Kuhn shared recent research on her work to better understand and quantify the current status of methane emissions and related uncertainties from the arctic-boreal region. Through Dr. Kuhn’s work, she and her collaborators show that distinguishing several wetland and lake classes (five and seven classes, respectively) improves our understanding of current and future methane emissions. Using the Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) land cover product and companion flux synthesis, their estimate of current annual methane emission (1990-2017) is lower than previous estimates due to explicit characterization of low methane-emitting wetland and lake classes, e.g. Permafrost Bogs, Bogs, Large Lakes and Glacial Lakes, meaning reduced double counting and a likely more accurate estimate of wetland and aquatic methane emissions from permafrost regions. To reduce uncertainty further we need improved wetland maps and additional measurements of wetland winter emissions and lake ebullition. Methane emissions were estimated to increase by ~35% under a central warming scenario (SSP2-4.5 by 2100), driven primarily by warming rather than permafrost thaw, but their interactions were significant.
Thumbnail image: Lisa Hupp/
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